Honeywell has released its 30th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasting up to 7,400 new business jet deliveries worth $238 billion from 2022 to 2031 – a 1 per cent increase in deliveries from the same 10-year forecast a year ago.
This year’s survey found that business jet operators had reported a sharp increase in used jet purchase plans, 12 per cent above last year’s report or equivalent to 800 additional used business aircraft. Business aircraft manufacturers also announced a strong increase in jet orders, indicating that the industry has almost completely shaken off the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Flight hours have grown beyond pre-pandemic levels”
Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace, said: “The increased demand for used jets is estimated at more than 6,500 units over the next five years, putting pressure on an already record low inventory and driving additional demand for new jets. Our latest operator survey results support continued private jet usage growth, as more than 65 per cent of respondents anticipate increased business jet usage in 2022. Despite the ongoing challenges presented by the pandemic, flight hours have recovered and grown beyond pre-pandemic levels. The overall health of the business jet market is strong, and growth is expected to continue.”
Key findings in the 2021 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:
- – Purchase plans for used jets show an increase in this year’s survey. Operators worldwide indicated that 28 per cent of their fleet is expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five years, up 3 percentage points compared with survey results from 2020. Business jet deliveries in 2022 are expected to be up 10 per cent from 2021 in terms of units billed.
– The longer-range forecast through 2031 projects a 3 per cent average annual growth rate of deliveries in line with expected worldwide long-term economic growth.
– Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are down 2 percentage points compared with last year’s survey. This can be attributed to uncertainty around the Covid-19 Delta variant at the time of the survey. The decrease is driven by fewer replacements in the fifth year; however, fleet additions grew by 1 percentage point.
– The sharp increase in demand for used jets, coupled with a lower-than-ever inventory of used aircraft available for sale, will inevitably drive additional demand for new-build business jets. Among those with purchase plans of new business jets over the next five years, 29 per cent of purchases are expected to occur in the next two years. This is just 1 percentage point lower than last year’s survey.
– Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 14 per cent of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet. Larger-cabin, heavy aircraft classes are expected to account for more than 72 per cent of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.
The latest survey also showed minimal ongoing Covid-19 impact in 2021:
- -9 of 10 operators in the survey said their new or used jet buying plans have not been postponed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly 100 per cent of 2021 respondents said that they had not cancelled and do not plan to cancel a delivery on a new aircraft.
– Year to date, business aviation usage trends point to a nearly 50 per cent increase in flight hours in 2021 versus 2020, roughly 5 per cent above 2019 (pre-COVID).
65 per cent of respondents globally expect to operate their business jets more frequently in 2022 versus 2021.
– 2021 survey respondents are not signalling sales of late-model aircraft due to Covid-19. Specifically, only 4 per cent of all respondents in the survey are planning to sell one or more aircraft without replacement in the next five years compared with 10 per cent in last year’s survey.
– Very few respondents (6 per cent) reported that conditions for their flight departments had worsened in 2021.
The Global Business Aviation Outlook reflects current operator concerns and also identifies longer-cycle trends that Honeywell uses in its own product decision process. The survey has helped identify opportunities for investments in flight-efficiency upgrades, expanded propulsion offerings, innovative safety products, services, upgrades, and enhanced aircraft connectivity offerings. The survey also informs Honeywell’s business pursuit strategy and helps position the company consistently on high-value platforms in growth sectors.