Environment, digitisation and regionalisation have been identified as the three key trends shaping air travel demand in Embraer’s 20-year Market Outlook for commercial aircraft deliveries through 2040.

The report was presented at a press briefing during the Dubai Air Show. The Outlook identifies trends which will influence demand for air travel and deliveries of new jet and turboprop aircraft up to 150 seats over the next two decades with results given for seven world regions.

Effects of the global pandemic have impacted global traffic recovery, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), which Embraer forecasts to grow 3.3 per cent annually to 2040. The worldwide RPK volume of 2019 is expected to return in 2024.

The three key trends shaping future demand for travel and aircraft identified in the Outlook are:

(i) Environment – airlines will acquire more fuel-efficient fleets

(ii) Digitalization – advances in technology, including work-from-home and videoconferencing

(iii) Regionalization – re-shoring to localize production and minimize supply-chain disruption.

Highlights of the 20-year Commercial Market Outlook

Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats 10,900 units

8,640 jets

2,260 turboprops

Market value of all new aircraft USD 650 billion

 

Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked

  • 4.2 per cent Asia Pacific (includes China)
  • 4.2 per cent Latin America
  • 3.8 per cent Africa
  • 3.6 per cent Middle East
  • 3.5 per cent CIS
  • 2.3 per cent Europe
  • 2.0 per cent North America

RPK share by the end of the decade (2029) 41 per cent Asia Pacific, 36 per cent Europe + North America

Jet deliveries (8,640) – ranked by region

  • 2,710 North America (31.4 per cent)
  • 2,160 Asia Pacific (25 per cent)
  • 1,770 Europe (20.5 per cent)
  • 760 Latin America (8.8 per cent)
  • 640 CIS (7.4 per cent)
  • 320 Middle East (3.7 per cent)
  • 280 Africa (3.2 per cent)

Turboprop deliveries (2,260) – ranked by region

  • 900 Asia Pacific (39.8 per cent)
  • 430 Europe (19 per cent)
  • 430 North America (19 per cent)
  • 180 Africa (8 per cent)
  • 180 Latin America (8 per cent)
  • 100 CIS (4.4 per cent)
  • 40 Middle East (1.8 per cent)

For the complete version of the 2021 Market Outlook, including analysis and regional synopses for each of the seven world regions, go to www.embraermarketoutlook2021.com

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